Saturday, October 29, 2016

Believe it or not, our global climate is changing.


Talk is that there’s no proof that our global climate is changing much at all. Talk is that, even if the planet’s weather is changing, it’s only a natural variation—not caused or exacerbated by changes in human behaviors.  Some U.S. Congress members proudly say, “I don’t believe in science."-- as if modern scientific research were part of one huge, globally-coordinated conspiracy to trick people who aren't scientists. 

When it comes to a conversation about Earth’s climate trends, some talk show hosts and "news" media conspiracy theorists make their impressive incomes by creating sensational conspiracy theories about scientific research that capture the imagination of millions of conspiracy-lovers. Professional conspiracy theorists have everything to gain and nothing to lose by coming up with these unsubstantiated theories. These popularity-motivated cynics have picked up on something: Many people have so little understanding of science that it is easy to exploit them. Most theorists' followers have no clue about the statistical methods used (legitimately and correctly) to analyze data; nor could they understand those analyses. So, it's easy to imagine that something their target audience doesn't understand could be presented as "suspicious."

For those who don't understand the research to then claim that it's the scientists who are suspect is... well... shameful audacity. Yes, there are a few unscrupulous researchers who take money from, say, the fossil fuel industry, pharmaceutical industry, tobacco industry, or either side of the agricultural products debate and conduct fraudulent pseudo-research. The so-called news media disproportionately latch onto these exceptions, leaving some audiences to assume that these are typical examples of how scientists draw conclusions rather than sensationalized exceptions. We cannot discredit the vast majority climatology researchers just because there are some researchers in some science disciplines with unacceptable professional ethics. 

Here's the deal:

(1) Global climate is changing. Overall, it's becoming warmer. Overall, global weather is becoming more erratic. Climate change does not mean that every year in every location the weather will be worse than the year before. It means there is a measurable trend in the changes. 

(2) Greenhouse gases, regardless of their sources, are contributing significantly to these climate problems. As the planet warms, sea levels rise and more low-lying land areas flood. As sea temperatures increase, some species are not able to adapt quickly enough; toxic algae blooms are more frequent and widespread. 

(3) Some potential sources of climate change are out of human control. Climatologists and those in related scientific disciplines research and analyze the correlation of those sources, including how human-generated greenhouse gasses contribute. Reducing human-generated greenhouse gases is within our control. 

(4) Rat
her than bicker about the causes, governments need to prepare for continued ocean elevation rise, increased flooding, and other increases in severe natural weather disasters. Those melted glaciers and disappearing Arctic Ocean ice aren't going to spontaneously refreeze anytime soon. In fact, the melting rate is accelerating. Nations around the world have decided to prepare for that future and to reduce the amount of air pollution they produce in an effort to lessen the severity of future damage to the planet.

(5) Human efforts at greenhouse gas reduction probably can't reverse all the damage that's already been done, but they could reduce the magnitude of change in the future. Those efforts most definitely will help... if they are adequate. Look at one photo of smog in Los Angeles in 1960 and another of the same valley in 2015 to see how aggressive efforts to reduce human-caused air pollution can make a positive difference. Los Angeles could not do anything about the Santa Ana winds or the fact that there are mountains surrounding Los Angeles, but that does not mean they should have thrown up their hands and accepted the smoggy “fate” of the region. They tackled the human causes and people there breathe more easily now.

(6) Greenhouse gasses come from an accumulation of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gasses. That combination of chemicals traps heat in our atmosphere. This atmospheric condition has been building since the Industrial Revolution but has accelerated steeply since the 1970s. O
zone-layer depletion is already resulting in increased frequency of skin cancer, cataracts/eye disease, and weakening of immune systems, all of which have occurred with the greater transmission of UV radiation that ozone depletion causes.

(7) Burning fossil fuels is causing a severe increase in the amount of carbon dioxide, which in turn is causing ocean acidification, which in turn benefits toxic algae while harming or killing corals and shellfish populations. The entire aquatic ecosystem has been thrown out of balance.

(8) Some of the air, land, and ocean pollutants and ozone depletion are the result of our agricultural methods, not our fossil fuel use. But that does not eliminate fossil fuels from the air pollution equation. It means that human-managed agricultural methods also need to be improved.

(9) Science does not work in mysterious ways. Even if a person can’t understand statistical methods or how “big data” about Earth’s climate is analyzed, they can understand the fundamentals of the scientific method. This is the method that climatologists and those in related sciences use to explore climate changes. There is nothing about the scientific method that one either “believes” or “doesn’t believe.” One might question the data analysis of a particular experiment and, therefore, question the conclusion. But that’s a single experiment that is in question, not the entire body of research, and certainly not all of science.